Good couple of weeks

Sorry for the lack of updates lately, and sorry if your main interesting is horse racing! Been a bit quiet on that lately apart from weekends, which have given mixed results.

Overall it's been an excellent couple of weeks since my last post. I had a run of 11 days without loss, which beats my record from last August. This was done with a combination of mainly football and a little horse racing, and in the 11 days I made £324, and average of £29.50 a day. Just shows how accepting a relatively small daily profits can really add up. It wasn't all just small consistent profits though, I did have a couple of days where I made far more than I should be able to with my bank, £110 and £77, this was on football and one some high scoring games. Real Madrid was one, I layed under 6.5 goals, and there were 8!

I knew when the day came and I had a loss, it wouldn't be a small one and I was right. I couldn't settle for just a small loss when I was chasing a 12th day of profit, so I went for one more match and ended up £62 down, which left me wishing I had stuck with the smaller £15 loss.

Anyway after that I was back to making too much! £173 on Saturday just gone, which was mainly made on the last 3 games of the day. By about 8pm I was around breaking even, then the last 3 games were all high scoring, and led to me winning some bets on over 4.5 goals, any unquoted etc, which give good winnings for only a small liability, if they come off.

Lost again Sunday, had an awful evening full of 0-0's 1-0's and 1-1's, which are all bad results for me when I lay the draw, layed under 1.5, under 2.5, and sometimes under 4.5 and back unquoted. I was gutted to end up £97 down after being a about £50 up after Evertons 5-1 win over Hull earlier in the day. I knew I should have stopped after that!

A small loss on Monday but then we get to Tuesday, and Arsenal! I did risk more than normal on this game but I did feel confident about doing it. I layed the draw, layed under 2.5, under 4.5, backed unquoted, and the big one, layed no hat trick at 1.03 with £100, just a £3 liability and Bendtner did it! All bets won on that game after a 5-0 thrashing of Porto. Also layed the draw, under 1.5 and 2.5 on the other Champions League match, and won all those too giving me a massive (by my standards) £201.86 profit from just two games, and a few minutes work. Finally I did the right thing and stopped, avoiding a game which I was originally going to bet on. It ended 0-0 so I'm really pleased I stopped while I was winning on this occasion.

Below is my profit and loss since 24/02/2010 when I last posted...

Horse Racing: £-10.49 | Soccer: £408.73  Total P&L: £398.24

I would rather it was the other way around though, I was trying to move away from football and focus on horse racing but figures like those won't have me quitting football any time soon! Just need to keep grounded and keep my risks as small as possible and still be happy with small but consistent profits. In the past I've often lost some discipline after a big win but on this occasion I'm determined to keep what I've won and build on it.

I've also just returned to profit for the first time since November last year, which is a big relief after being over £500 down not long ago.

Current Bank: £618.88
Total P&L since June 2009: £48.88

Any questions or comments are appreciated.

Thanks!

A Mixed Few Days

6 days on from my last update and I'm slightly up.
Still the lack of horse racing is leaving me betting/trading on football, which on Saturday went quite badly. I was going fine until the evening, when a match finished 0-0 which really shouldn't have. I had a loss and stupidly put more on the next match too, layed the draw, layed under 1.5 and 2.5 goals, as plenty were expected, but once again a 0-0 draw! This meant a total loss of £124.07. I made it back surprisingly quickly though, and with plenty of luck.

Here's a summary of the last few days...

Thursday 18/02/2010

Very little activity today, just two trades on horses, one gain, one loss, and a small amount made on football.

Horse Racing: -£0.33 | Soccer: £1.45  Total P&L: £1.12

Friday 19/02/2010


Again just a couple of decent trades on horse racing and no football.

Horse Racing: £3.42 | Soccer: £0.00  Total P&L: £3.42

Saturday 20/02/2010


Really bad day today, as explained above. I really need to stop having days like this, there's been to many losses of over £100 in a day and with a bank the size of mine, I just can't let it happen again.

Horses went well, traded in quite a few races and made small profits, but ended really well with a risky £18 stake on a horse at a price of 770. I had a feeling this would come down as it had started around 100 and the forecast price was 100/1. There was also quite a good amount of money traded for such a big outsider so I gambled and sure enough within a few minutes it dropped and I traded out at about 350 for a good level profit of around £20 if I remember rightly.

Today just proves why I'm looking forward to having horse racing every evening during the summer. I can be quite consistent on the horses and accept small profits but my mind just seems to work differently on football for whatever reason, but I think today's loss has really made me more determined not to let that happen again.

Horse Racing: £30.83 | Soccer: -£154.90  Total P&L: -£124.07

Sunday 21/02/2010

Didn't feel up to doing too much today after reducing my bank so much yesterday. Horse racing was off too due to the weather. I did manage a small gain betting that Sedgefield would be off so still managed a profit on horse racing without a race!
I was wary about the football but I got involved anyway but with smaller liabilities. I was limiting myself to a liability of £10 for each bet, which when I was laying draws, and under 1.5, under 2.5 etc meant stakes of mostly under £5, but results went well and it soon added up.
Then came the game of the day involving Real Madrid, I had my usual lays of the draw, under 1.5, under 2.5, but for this game I decided to lay under 6.5, so I needed 7 goals! There were 8 goals in the game, so all my bets were won including my £50 layed of under 6.5 (liability was only £2.50). This was a big relief to have recovered so quickly from yesterday, I was expecting it to take at least a week to get back to where I was. I won't be risking such big percentages of my bank in future though, I feel like I've finally learnt a lesson there.

Horse Racing: £4.95 | Soccer: £105.32  Total P&L: £110.27

Monday 22/02/2010


No activity today

Tuesday 23/02/2010

Just football today and again I managed to keep my liabilities low and come out with a nice profit which is how I need to go on.

Horse Racing: £0.00 | Soccer: £20.50  Total P&L: £20.50

Current Bank: £220.71
Total P&L since June 2009: -£349.29

Any feedback at all, good or bad I will be pleased to hear it, and also if anyone has any questions or would like me to explain something in more detail just ask.

Thanks for reading.

Silly Risk Goes Unpunished

It's turned out to be a good few days since my last update, but I really deserved to be punished last night (Tuesday), I'll get to that later.

Monday 15/02/2010

Didn't do much today, just a little on football. I've been interested in trying multiples in football, where you start with a small stake, bet on likely outcomes for total odds around evens, and double your money if the multiple wins, then next bet same thing, but with the original stake plus what you won on the last bet. I've read about a lot of people having success with this, it only takes a few good bets in a row to get into hundreds if you start with £10, so well worth a go I think.
Just a trial tonight with a £2 stake, which I won. Also lost a tiny amount on a partially matched bet of over 2.5 goals which lost.

Horse Racing: £0.00 | Soccer: £1.42  Total P&L: £1.42

Tuesday 16/02/2010

Again only football today, started well with a lay of under 2.5 goals in the Everton match (+£10) then next game was in the Copa Libertadores, which has been going well for me and producing a lot of goals so I went for a few goals in this game and also backed any unquoted in the correct score market. A very poor game only produced one goal (-£29.55). I also tried another multiple but lost this time.
This is when I did something which could have, and should have put a large dent in my bank. I set out 'chasing' on the next game, I wanted to get back in profit and risked quite a lot to do it. The home team were big favourites and expected to overpower the opposition so I layed under 2.5 goals, and backed any unquoted scoreline. Home team went 1-0 up just before half time, then early in the 2nd half home team made it 2-0 and the away team got two players sent off so all was looking good. Instead of scoring more they just slowed the game down to walking pace and didn't seem interesting in scoring. As the 90th minute approached at 2-0 I stood to lose a lot and end with a bank of just £44. I even entered this amount onto my spreadsheet as I thought I'd surely lost, then they somehow scored two goals in injury time to win my lay of under 2.5, and my back of unquoted leaving me with a bank of £138.27.
It was a huge escape and I really need to learn from that that I can't have such a big liability on football matches

Horse Racing: £0.00 | Soccer: £17.21  Total P&L: £17.21

Wednesday 17/02/2010

Started off with just one horse race, before going to my mates and betting on some football there.
Spotted a horse with a forecast price of 6/1, and it was up to 13.0 on betfair. The graph showed it had drifted a lot recently and was still drifting. There was also a lot of money to be matched on the backing side of the market, which made me think it would be pushed a little further still. It drifted to 14.0, then most of the money transferred to the laying side so I didn't see much more of a rise, so jumped in at 14.0 with a £40 stake, because I was quite confident. It didn't take long to start dropping and I layed and hedged at 11.0 for around £10 level profit. The odds shortened to below 10 before the off.

Onto football and in the Newcastle match I layed a draw, layed under 2.5 and backed unquoted. 4-1 was my prediction but as I couldn't bet on 4-1, unquoted seemed the next best thing. Won all these bets and the result was 4-1 with a last minute goal! (+£41.83).
Also layed under 2.5 in the Bayern Munich match as stats showed there were a lot of goals in all their recent games, score was 2-1 so also won this (+£9.51)
Then also tried to get going with multiples again and selected Newcastle and Bayern Munich to win, which happened adding another £10.35.
That means every bet won tonight, and my liabilities weren't as much as normal, under £50 for all bets combined so a very pleasing day.

Horse Racing: £9.51 | Soccer: £61.69  Total P&L: £71.20

Current Bank: £209.47
Total P&L since June 2009: -£360.53

I never planned to write so much on these updates, I just get carried away and go into too much detail! 

I think in future I'll trim them down a little and if anyone wants to know more about a particular bet which I haven't explained, just ask and I'll explain.

Good day turned bad

Started the day with a bank of £125.22, end with £119.64.

That doesn't tell the whole story though, at about 5pm I was up to £230, mainly due to football, but some bad results this evening did a lot of damage. Firstly Sevilla only winning 1-0 cost me, then looked like I would make a good profit on Athletico Madrid v Barcelona. Score was 2-1 at HT, just needed two more to win £40, but stayed 2-1 so lost £30 there. Then finally a late night Argentinian match finished 0-0, costing me more.

Results for 14/02/2010...
Horse Racing: £18.17 | Soccer: -£23.75  Total P&L:  -£5.58

Current Bank: £119.64
Total P&L since June 2009: -£450.36

Day 1 - How I got here

Welcome to my first ever online blog entry.

After 8 months of trading and betting on Betfair I have learned quite a lot, but I'm still far from being a successful trader. In the first couple of months I was laying horses and greyhounds with mixed results, then moved onto trading horses, which is why I joined Betfair to start with. In my first couple of months trading, things were going well, I was over £500 up during August and September last year. I think it went too well though, it probably gave me too much confidence and I started losing it. I would often leave a bet to go in play instead of take a small loss and most of the time lose my full stake (£20).

Another thing I got into was football, which gave big rewards to start with and seemed to be going well, but like horse racing I soon started losing money there too.

When my total loss got over £500 I decided I really need to sort myself out, I couldn't keep blowing my bank. I have tried to be more careful since and improved things slightly. I'm now down by around £400 but still I'm winning and losing too much every day. I know for a bank of my size (currently around £150) I should only be staking 2-4% on each trade, but my stakes are always either £20 or £40 on horses. On football I often risked larger amounts, sometime up to £100 liability on one game, I've got this down to around £40 now, but still this is too much. I've had days where I've made over £100 and days where I've lost over £100 (normally the day after I made it!) which clearly is far too much.

My aim is to become more disciplined, reduce my liability in any one football match to around £20. I don't plan to reduce my horse racing stakes though, I tend to have more winning trades than losing trades on horse racing. One of my common mistakes on horse racing is backing big outsiders and seeing them go to 1000, then not being able to lay, losing my whole stake. I would like to avoid these large odds, but they have in the past paid off, sometimes I can 'green up' for £30-£50 profit. I'm sure in total though the amount I've lost when they go to 1000 will be more than I've made, so I will try to avoid these. Also when I do have a couple of good days in a row, it seems to affect me and I go on a losing run.

Back in August when I was doing well I had a 10 day winning streak, averaging around £20 profit per day. This is really what I would like to get back to, but it's hard working full time and only having racing on weekends, apart from the odd couple of races on weekday evening. The lack of racing during winter is partly to blame for my downfall I feel, it has driven me to bet on more football, often teams I've never heard of just in the hope of returning a profit for the day.
Hopefully as the full evening cards return I can become more consistent and focused on horse racing, and get myself back into profit, that would be nice.

Anyway I think I'll stop there, this is getting a bit long. 

I'll post todays results soon, looking like a loss!